Traders see no near-term Fed rate cuts, with September meeting odds at 50.1% for a hold amid tight trading ranges.
The US Dollar Index held near 99.80 on Tuesday, trading within a 0.2-point range as markets awaited key inflation data. Private hiring slowed to an 8.25K four-week average from 11K, while existing home sales fell 1.7% month-over-month, offering no clear direction for Fed policy.
Futures priced a 50.1% chance of a Fed hold at the September 16 meeting, nearly unchanged from prior sessions. The probability of a rate cut remains at 0.0% for eight consecutive FOMC meetings through July 2027, with the first meaningful cut not priced until September 2027.
Wednesday’s CPI print, expected at 3.4% YoY from 3.5%, may delay a hike but is unlikely to shift cut expectations, as the curve offers no dovish tail for the dollar to price.