June CPI fell to 1.5% year-on-year, undershooting CNB projections, yet policymakers emphasize persistent core inflation risks.
Czech headline inflation slowed to 1.5% year-on-year in June, below the Czech National Bank’s 2.1% forecast and market expectations of 1.8%. The monthly price level declined 0.3%, driven by softer goods and energy costs, though services inflation remained elevated at 4.5% year-on-year.
The CNB had projected 2.1% inflation for the period, while prior readings stood at 2.1% in May. Core inflation, excluding volatile components, remains above the central bank’s 2% target, with officials describing the latest print as transitory.
Despite the softer data, CNB board members maintain a hawkish bias, signaling potential for one more 25-basis-point hike in 2026. The Czech koruna is expected to outperform the Polish zloty in the near term.