Oil prices fell after Trump delayed Iran strikes
Crude oil prices tumbled after the US postponed strikes against Iran. The OPEC+ output increase had little impact on the market’s supply calculus due to constrained shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
Additional quota barrels are not reaching buyers, making the headline production increase a weaker bearish offset than the price reaction implies. The disconnect between quota barrels and deliverable barrels is likely to remain in focus as long as both chokepoints remain under threat.
The market is focused on physical flow risk rather than paper supply additions, with tanker rerouting around southern Africa and thinning Hormuz traffic. This suggests that the OPEC+ output hike may not easily get to market, keeping prices volatile.