A hidden tanker trade off Oman is supplying over 4 million barrels daily, preventing price spikes amid Middle East tensions.
Brent crude has remained between $80 and $90 in August, defying fears of a surge to $150 due to a covert oil shuttle trade. This informal supply buffer transfers barrels via tankers off Oman’s coast, avoiding the riskiest stretch of the Strait of Hormuz. Volumes exceed initial market estimates of 4 million barrels per day, though exact figures are obscured by deliberate vessel tracking evasion.
The trade has acted as a stabilizing force, reducing upside price risks that markets had largely dismissed months ago. However, any disruption—whether from escalating attacks or insurers withdrawing coverage—could swiftly remove this buffer. Additional supply cushion may emerge if Saudi Arabia joins other Gulf nations in expanding shuttle operations, as suggested by idle tanker capacity near Oman.
Markets have grown reliant on this shadow trade without fully pricing its fragility, leaving prices vulnerable to sudden shifts in supply dynamics.