The bank raises its forecast due to global risk-off sentiment and oil price uncertainty impacting emerging market currencies.
Commerzbank revised its near-term EUR/PLN forecast to 4.30 from 4.20, citing heightened global risk aversion and oil price volatility. The zloty faces downside pressure as emerging market currencies weaken amid broader market uncertainty.
The bank maintained its end-2026 forecast at 4.25 and its end-2027 target at 4.40, expecting a gradual depreciation of the zloty through 2027. Geopolitical de-escalation and potential monetary policy timing could support a recovery in the medium term.
Higher risk premia and political risks remain headwinds, but a stabilization in oil prices and risk sentiment may create a favorable window for the zloty before rate cut expectations resurface.