Commerzbank (note from Friday) raised its Brent forecast to $90/bbl by end-September and $85 by year-end, up from $80 for both, citing Hormuz closure, inventory draws and a slow Gulf output recovery.
Summary: Brent forecast raised to $90/bbl by end-September and $85 by year-end, up from a prior $80 for both periods, on the assumption the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for another two months until early August Even an immediate US-Iran agreement would require several weeks of mine-clearing before safe navigation resumes; Iran has reportedly been given 30 days for demining Gulf oil production expected to remain below pre-war levels for some time due to ramp-up delays and infrastructure damage, with no return to pre-war prices forecast in the near term European gas prices seen staying around 50 EUR/MWh through year-end even after Hormuz reopens, with Commerzbank’s base case pointing to storage of only around 70% by end-September against an 80% target Qatari LNG facility capacity could be reduced by around 20% for the next three to five years; higher Asian LNG demand from El Nino conditions poses additional upside risk to European gas Commerzbank has raised its Brent crude price forecasts for the coming quarters, lifting its end-September projection to $90 a barrel and its year-end figure to $85, in both cases up from a prior estimate of $80
The German bank cited the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, accelerating inventory draws, and a recovery in Gulf oil production that is expected to remain well below pre-war levels for an extended period. The revised outlook is built on the assumption that the strait stays closed to normal shipping until early August. Critically, analysts at the bank noted that even an immediate diplomatic breakthrough would not translate quickly into resumed supply flows.
Mine-clearing operations alone are expected to take several weeks, and Iran has reportedly been allocated 30 days for demining work. The implication is that the market