Over 2,600 CMBS loans totaling $100B face refinancing at rates 172-178 bps higher, with multifamily distress surpassing retail and hotels.
More than 2,600 conduit and single-borrower large loan CMBS loans, totaling over $100B, mature in the next nine months. The balance-weighted distress rate for the pool stands at 5.55%, masking significant sector disparities.
Multifamily loans, typically considered lower-risk, show a 7.5% distress rate on $5.01B of maturing balance, exceeding retail at 3.5% and hotels at 4.4%. Office loans lead distress at 9.4% on $23.86B. Refinancing challenges loom as loans in this cohort carry an average note rate of 5.44%, while recent originations price at rates 172-178 bps higher.
The reset threatens even performing loans, particularly in mixed-use, retail, and office sectors, where refinancing costs have surged sharply.