– China’s growth slowed across the board in April with investment resuming declines, calling into question the government’s reluctance to add stimulus to the economy as a global energy crisis hits factories and consumers across the world.
Most Read from Bloomberg Official data on Monday painted a picture of an economy where booming exports no longer offset deteriorating consumption at home, prompting analysts at banks including Nomura Holdings Inc. and Societe Generale SA to urge bolder measures in support of growth
Fixed-asset investment unexpectedly shrank 1.6% in the first four months of 2026 from a year earlier, while industrial production grew 4.1% last month — the weakest in almost three years. Retail sales missed forecasts and rose just 0.2% in April, the worst reading since they contracted in December 2022, when China reopened from Covid. Authorities “might need to step up policy support for stabilizing growth,” Nomura economists led by Ting Lu said in a report. “Beijing has no room for complacency.” The breadth of the slowdown in April is putting the prospect of a more aggressive stimulus back on the agenda after China stood out in its resilience to the fallout from the Iran war.
The government pulled back on fiscal spending in March, while the central bank has steered clear of even hinting at any further loosening in policy, amid ample market liquidity and weak demand for credit. A rising number of economists has been forecasting the People’s Bank of China won’t lower interest rates this year after the oil shock pushed up inflation expectations, though many still expect a cut to lenders’ reserve requirement ratio. The PBOC last lowered the policy rate and the RRR at the peak of the trade tensions with the US a year ago.