A note from ING with a take on China’s data today.
A note from ING with a take on China’s data today. China’s official manufacturing PMI held at 50.3 in April as export orders returned to growth for the first time since 2024, but the non-manufacturing PMI fell to a 40-month low of 49.4, exposing the weakness in domestic demand.
Summary: China’s official manufacturing PMI edged down to 50.3 in April from 50.4 in March, coming in above both ING’s forecast and broader market expectations, with production ticking up to 51.5 and employment improving slightly though remaining in contraction at 48.8 Overall new orders dropped to 50.6 from 51.6, pointing to weak domestic demand, while the new export orders subindex rose to 50.3, returning to expansion for the first time since April 2024 The imports subindex also returned to expansion at 50.1 for the first time since March 2024, suggesting trade activity held up solidly through the month Raw material purchase prices remained elevated at 63.7 and ex-factory prices at 55.1, both slightly lower than March but still consistent with a continuing reflation trend that ING expects the May inflation data to confirm The private RatingDog manufacturing PMI beat expectations more decisively, rising to 52.2 from 50.8, with ING attributing the outperformance to the index’s heavier weighting toward export-oriented private firms China’s non-manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4 in April, matching January’s reading for a 40-month low, with the new orders subindex dropping to 44.3, its lowest level since 2022 Non-manufacturing export orders remained in contraction for a 16th consecutive month at 47.3, while the sales price component stayed contractionary for a 31st straight month at 48.1, indicating cost pressures have not yet been passed on to consumers in the services sector ING attributed the underperformance in services to the sector’s greater domestic orientation relative to manufacturing, with soft consumer demand increasingly weighing on the non-manufacturing reading China’s April…