BNP Paribas economists forecast a moderate slowdown in China’s growth for 2026 despite steady Q1 expansion.
China’s economy expanded 5.0% year-on-year in Q1 2026, matching 2025’s full-year growth rate, as supportive policies offset headwinds. The print reflects resilience but masks a K-shaped recovery, with strong exports contrasting weak domestic demand and a struggling property sector.
Economists had anticipated a slight deceleration after 2025’s 5.0% growth, citing structural challenges. The property downturn and subdued consumption remain key drags, though policy stimulus may cushion the slowdown.
Markets are monitoring Beijing’s response, with expectations of further targeted measures to stabilize growth.