Higher crude costs and electric vehicle adoption drive a sharper-than-expected decline in Chinese gasoline consumption next year.
Chinese gasoline consumption is projected to fall 5.5% in 2026, steeper than the previously forecast 5.2% drop. The revision follows a surge in global oil prices triggered by geopolitical tensions and a sustained shift toward electric vehicles in China.
Earlier estimates had anticipated a milder decline, but elevated crude costs and accelerating EV adoption have weighed on demand. The consultancy’s latest forecast reflects a broader trend of reduced fossil fuel reliance in the world’s largest auto market.
Markets are monitoring the impact on refining margins and global oil demand as China’s consumption patterns evolve.