Regulator targets wagers on foreign leader ousters and sports prop bets under new 45-day public comment proposal.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed rules Wednesday to ban prediction markets on outcomes involving war, assassination, or the removal of foreign leaders. The move targets platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, which have faced criticism for hosting wagers on events such as the ouster of Iran’s Ali Khamenei or Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro, attracting hundreds of millions in trading volume.
Under the proposal, markets resolving on non-violent exits—such as elections or resignations—would still be permitted. The rules also seek to prohibit sports prop bets on injuries, referee calls, and specific plays. The CFTC’s 45-day public comment period begins immediately.
The proposal follows attempts by platforms to circumvent existing restrictions with vaguely worded contracts, raising regulatory concerns over market integrity and geopolitical risks.