ING sees EUR/CZK testing 24.300 as Czech core inflation holds at 2.8-2.9% and Polish GDP growth accelerates to 3.8% YoY.
Central and Eastern European currencies start the week under pressure from higher oil prices and narrowing rate differentials. ING analysts highlight EUR/CZK’s close above 24.250 on Friday, with upside risk toward 24.300 amid global market volatility and regional data releases.
Tuesday’s final Czech inflation print is expected to confirm 1.7% headline CPI, while core inflation remains steady at 2.8-2.9%. Poland’s Thursday releases include final CPI, likely at 3.0%, and second-quarter GDP, projected to rise to 3.8% YoY from 3.5% in the first quarter, driven by investment growth.
Global factors, including stalled US-Iran talks and last week’s US jobs data, continue to drive regional markets. Mixed openings are expected, with CEE assets vulnerable to further corrections as rate differentials tighten.