The stock’s pullback to its 126-day moving average has historically led to 24.6% average gains within a month.
CAVA Group Inc (NYSE:CAVA) has retreated to its 126-day moving average after a 33.3% year-to-date gain, trading at $78.26. The stock spent 80% of the past two weeks and 42 sessions above this trendline before this pullback.
Historically, this setup has occurred three times in the last decade, with CAVA rising 100% of the time one month later, averaging a 24.6% gain. A similar move from current levels would target $97.51. Short interest at 13.3% of float could amplify upward pressure.
Volatility expectations remain low, with CAVA’s Schaeffer’s Volatility Index at 54%, in the 17th percentile of its annual range. The stock has consistently outperformed volatility expectations, scoring 88 on the Schaeffer’s Volatility Scorecard.