TD Securities forecasts zero employment growth for June, defying consensus expectations of a 10k gain following May’s 87.8k jobs increase.
Canadian employment is expected to remain unchanged in June, contrasting with market forecasts of a 10k gain, according to TD Macro Research. The projection follows May’s unexpected 87.8k jobs surge, which analysts view as an outlier compared to the six-month trend of mild job losses.
The unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 6.6%, with wage growth for permanent workers rising modestly to 3.6% year-on-year. This would only partially reverse May’s sharp deceleration in wage growth. Mixed business surveys in June, including weaker small business hiring intentions, support the softer outlook.
Mean reversion is cited as the primary driver for the anticipated slowdown, as last month’s jobs surge diverged significantly from recent trends.