TD Securities forecasts a 1.1% month-on-month gain in Canadian retail sales for May, exceeding the 1.0% consensus estimate.
Canadian retail sales are expected to rise 1.1% month-on-month in May, slightly above the 1.0% consensus, driven by higher gasoline prices and a rebound in core spending. The increase follows a 0.5pp contribution from fuel stations in April.
Excluding autos, sales are projected to climb 1.4%, outpacing the market forecast of 1.1%. A recovery in the ex-autos/gas measure is also anticipated, supported by stronger job growth and a rise in consumer goods imports.
Gasoline prices rose 5% in May, providing a key tailwind for the headline print. Motor vehicle sales are expected to see modest gains, building on April’s 1.7% increase.