Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economists Abbey Xu and Nathan Janzen note that Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 0.3% in May, with an advance estimate of 0.2% for June, indicating a solid second-quarter rebound after winter stagnation.
They highlight broad-based sector gains and estimate Q2 annualized growth of 3.4%, above their 2.2% forecast, while warning that escalating trade tensions and new U.S. tariffs pose downside risks despite improving per-person and per-worker output
Growth rebounds but trade risks loom “The stronger-than-expected 0.3% increase in Canadian GDP in May (and early estimate of another 0.2% increase in June) added to evidence that the economy bounced back at a solid pace in the second quarter after growth stalled over the winter.” “Monthly GDP readings and advance estimates are notoriously revision-prone, but the preliminary estimate, including the June advance, points to annualized quarter-over-quarter growth of 3.4% in Q2, more than a percentage point above our 2.2% forecast.” “Looking ahead, escalating trade tensions and the latest U.S. tariff announcements pose downside risks to the outlook, particularly for targeted industries.” “Still, signs of a bounce-back in Q2 growth and stabilization in labour markets are encouraging.” “We continue to expect the economy to gradually improve on a per-person and per-worker basis this year.” Author