TD Securities projects May GDP rose 0.2% month-over-month, surpassing the 0.1% flash estimate and extending April’s 0.5% increase.
Canadian real GDP likely grew 0.2% in May, exceeding the 0.1% flash estimate and building on April’s 0.5% gain. The increase reflects balanced contributions from goods and services sectors, including manufacturing, existing home sales, and retail trade.
The April gain marked a strong start to Q2, with labour market strength—evidenced by higher hours worked and job creation—supporting economic performance. June GDP is expected to moderate following the robust Q2 opening.
Growth drivers include a rebound in retail trade and a sharp rise in existing home sales, while manufacturing remains a key goods-sector contributor.