Ray Dalio forecasts negative real returns of -5% to -10% for U.S. equities over the next 5–10 years amid high concentration in AI leaders.
Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio warned that U.S. equities could deliver real returns of -5% to -10% over the next 5–10 years. He cited excessive market concentration in a small group of large AI-related companies as a key risk.
Dalio noted that historical technology cycles often feature elevated valuations, high volatility, and unclear long-term winners. He highlighted broader macro uncertainties, including debt levels, monetary policy, and geopolitical tensions, as additional headwinds.
The investor advised against overconcentration in AI leaders, recommending diversified, risk-balanced portfolios to navigate the uncertain environment.