ING cuts Brent forecasts to $80 in 3Q26 and $74 in 4Q26 after faster-than-expected Persian Gulf supply recovery weakens prices.
Oil prices declined after a US-Iran agreement accelerated Persian Gulf supply recovery, exceeding demand growth. The deal enabled swifter normalization of flows, pressuring the physical market amid slower Chinese buying and strategic reserve releases.
ING revised its Brent forecasts downward, projecting $80 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026 and $74 in the fourth quarter. The bank now expects Brent to average $70 in 2027, citing reduced disruption risks but warning of potential volatility from geopolitical tensions or demand shifts.
The outlook remains fluid, with supply normalization potentially completed by late July. However, renewed US-Iran tensions or unexpected Chinese demand could drive prices toward $100 per barrel.