OCBC maintains a gradual easing outlook for oil prices into late 2026 despite near-term support from geopolitical tensions.
Brent crude fell below $100 per barrel on ceasefire optimism but remains underpinned by elevated geopolitical risks and vulnerability in the Hormuz Strait. The decline reflects weaker Chinese demand and strong US exports, though supply uncertainties limit further downside.
OCBC’s base case projects oil prices easing into the second half of 2026, with structural risk premia and stockpiling providing support. Temporary buffers from inventory drawdowns may fade in the coming months, capping near-term gains.
Despite softer demand signals, ongoing disruptions and Iran’s capacity to impact flows keep prices sticky above key levels.