A potential US-Iran agreement could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing oil prices to $86 per barrel in late 2026.
Brent crude could retreat to $86 per barrel in Q4 2026 if a US-Iran deal reopens the Strait of Hormuz, according to a baseline scenario. The outlook assumes shipping resumes this month, easing supply concerns.
A prolonged closure, however, could drive prices toward $150, triggering stagflation risks and a European recession. Global GDP would face only minor trimming under this scenario.
Recent tensions saw Brent spike to $97.79 before settling at $94.98, marking a 4.24% daily jump in the front-end contract after adjusting for the monthly benchmark roll.