BNY analysts see HUF as a strong carry candidate if inflation remains controlled amid corporate flow strength and MNB policy easing.
BNY analysts highlight Hungary’s constructive outlook within EMEA, citing post-election re-rating and potential for further Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) easing. The 10-year government yield has dropped 200 basis points, reflecting improved sentiment.
Corporate flows have surged to their strongest level in six months, while spreads remain compensatory. However, fiscal slippage risks and energy constraints warrant caution on duration. Institutional reforms may support private-sector spillovers.
With Eurozone financial conditions easing and U.S. Treasury actions influencing markets, HUF could strengthen as a carry currency if inflation stays contained. The MNB’s upcoming meeting will test whether easing can persist despite supply and fiscal challenges.