Arthur Hayes lowers his Bitcoin forecast, citing reduced fiat liquidity and AI-driven deflationary pressures on tech stocks.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has revised his Bitcoin price target downward to $125,000 from $500,000, with a timeline of May 15, 2026. Hayes attributed the adjustment to Bitcoin’s dependence on global fiat liquidity, which he believes has been constrained by recent market conditions.
The Q1 crash in tech and SaaS stocks, driven by AI-related panic, highlighted deflationary pressures such as layoffs and debt defaults. Hayes suggested these factors limit central banks’ ability to print money aggressively, directly impacting Bitcoin’s potential valuation.
Hayes emphasized that future central bank policies will determine how high Bitcoin can rise, framing the asset’s performance as tied to broader monetary trends.