In brief – The 10-year U.S.
Treasury yield hit 4.63%—a 16-month high—up 70 basis points since the Iran War began, as odds of a 2026 rate cut collapsed to 2%. – Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows reached $1 billion for the week ending May 15, the largest weekly exit since late January, per SoSoValue. – Analysts say $77,000 is the critical threshold—a break below with elevated open interest could put a $70,000 retest in play
Bitcoin fell to a three-week low over the weekend as a surge in U.S. Treasury yields sent ETF outflows to their worst level since late January and drove more than $670 million in liquidations across crypto markets. The 10-year U.S.
Treasury yield reached 4.63% on Sunday night—its highest since February 2025—up 70 basis points since the Iran War began, according to The Kobeissi Letter post Monday. The move puts yields four basis points above the level that prompted President Trump’s 90-day tariff pause in April 2025. With U.S. mortgage rates nearing 7% and odds of a rate cut this year collapsing to 2%, “the U.S. bond market is collapsing in real-time,” the post read.