A key risk-adjusted return metric for BTC reached -20, a level historically signaling bear-market bottoms, per on-chain data.
Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio fell to -20 on June 11, a threshold that has preceded every major cycle low since 2015. The metric, which compares return to volatility, suggests accumulation rather than further downside, though past instances saw prolonged consolidation before recovery began.
Historically, the ratio remained below -20 for three to five months before BTC entered a sustained rebound. Separate on-chain data showed accumulator wallets absorbed 125,000 BTC in early June, while exchange reserves dropped 80,000 BTC since February to 2.71 million.
BTC recovered from a $59,130 low to $65,800, driven by macro factors rather than on-chain signals, ahead of today’s FOMC decision.