Technical indicators and supply dynamics suggest Bitcoin may reach a cycle low in August or September, per research firms.
Bitcoin’s monthly relative strength index (RSI) points to a potential bear market bottom in August, according to technical analysis. The RSI, a momentum indicator, has historically signaled market lows when reaching oversold levels, though timing varies by cycle.
Prior cycles saw Bitcoin bottom within 13 to 31 days after 50% of its supply was held at a loss, a threshold recently crossed. In 2017, 2018, and 2022, this pattern preceded price recoveries. Long-term holders now control a record 14.7 million BTC, further supporting the case for a near-term low.
Macroeconomic factors, including Federal Reserve policy, remain key drivers of Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Analysts note that earlier-than-expected cycle lows could occur if macro conditions shift, with some projecting a bottom in September or October.