Markets assign a 30 percent chance of a Fed rate hike this week, with bitcoin showing resilience amid tech stock declines.
Bitcoin remains steady above $63,000, rising about 6 percent this month despite a slump in AI-driven tech and semiconductor stocks. The cryptocurrency’s correlation with equities has weakened, reducing its exposure to Fed policy shifts compared to traditional risk assets.
Traders are divided ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision, with CME FedWatch data showing a 70 percent probability of unchanged rates and a 30 percent chance of a 25-basis-point hike. Analysts note this meeting is among the most uncertain in years, with only two prior meetings since 2015 showing similar market division.
The Fed’s reduced forward guidance under Chair Kevin Warsh has contributed to the uncertainty, leaving investors with limited clarity on the central bank’s next move. Bitcoin’s decoupling from equities may limit its reaction to the Fed’s decision.