Analysts split on whether BTC will extend gains or consolidate after October 2025 peak of $126,000 amid ETF-driven demand.
Bitcoin’s historical halving cycle suggests a potential peak near $150,000 by the end of 2026, following a 12-18 month rally after the April 2024 halving. BTC reached an all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025, aligning with past cycles, but now trades at $80,000, down 37% from that peak.
Standard Chartered and Bernstein forecast $150,000 by year-end, an 88% gain from current levels, while Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer argues the cycle topped at $126,000, predicting a dormant 2026 with support between $65,000 and $75,000. This cycle differs due to $106 billion in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF assets, led by BlackRock’s $66.9 billion IBIT fund, which holds 66% of the market.
The introduction of spot ETFs, absent in prior cycles, may alter traditional price patterns as institutional demand absorbs supply.