VanEck’s report highlights 8 triggered capitulation signals in Bitcoin, suggesting a potential near-term accumulation phase amid drawdowns.
Bitcoin’s market capitulation signals have reached 8 out of 12 tracked metrics, according to a recent analysis. The drawdown from its October 2025 peak has extended for 10 months, historically aligning with accumulation phases in prior cycles.
All 12 signals entered capitulation territory at some point over the past three months. Historical backtests indicate limited excess returns in the 3–6 months following similar signals, with outperformance only evident over a one-year horizon.
Over the last 30 days, long-term Bitcoin holdings declined by 357,000 BTC to 11.84 million BTC, or 59.1% of circulating supply. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETPs recorded $663 million in net inflows, while 30-day realized volatility dropped to 27.2%.