Gold’s 20-25% correction since Middle East tensions eased is seen as temporary, with structural drivers intact, Barclays says.
Gold’s recent 20-25% decline, driven by a stronger dollar and higher yields amid Middle East tensions, is viewed as a positioning reset rather than a structural shift. Barclays maintains its long-term targets of $4,791 for 2026 and $4,900 for 2027, citing intact demand fundamentals.
The selloff was amplified by crowded leveraged positions and central bank sales from Russia and Turkey, which sold reserves to defend their currencies. However, these factors are unlikely to persist, with reserve diversification expected to resume.
Barclays notes that gold’s proximity to its $4,150 fair-value estimate presents a cleaner entry point for buyers, assuming the Iran peace framework stabilizes the dollar and yields.