Rabobank forecasts USD/MXN at 17.6 by December, citing Banxico’s unchanged 6.50% rate and stable summer trading outlook.
Banxico maintained its policy rate at 6.50% on June 25, matching consensus expectations and signaling no near-term shifts. The decision was unanimous, with all 26 analysts in a Bloomberg survey predicting the hold. Strategists noted the central bank’s explicit guidance to keep rates steady in upcoming meetings, reinforcing a cautious stance amid global monetary policy alignment.
The move mirrors Rabobank’s outlook for the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada, both expected to hold rates through year-end. USD/MXN showed no immediate reaction to the announcement, reflecting market stability. Rabobank projects the pair to trade largely rangebound over the summer, targeting 17.6 by December, while dismissing significant USMCA-related volatility.
Analysts downplayed risks from the USMCA’s shift to annual reviews, citing limited premium impact following the lack of a 16-year renewal deadline. The peso’s stability hinges on Banxico’s steady policy and broader Fed dynamics, with no surprises anticipated in the near term.