Rabobank raises its 3-month AUD/USD target to 0.71, citing RBA rate hike risks and a weaker US dollar outlook.
Rabobank has increased its 3-month AUD/USD forecast to 0.71 from 0.70, driven by expectations of a November Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike and a softer US dollar. The Australian dollar has trended higher since July, outperforming half its G10 peers amid shifting RBA policy bets.
The revision follows strong labor data and softer Q2 CPI, which have fueled speculation about further RBA tightening. Markets await the RBA’s August 11 policy meeting for clearer signals on rate hike risks. Rabobank maintains a modest upside bias for AUD/USD over 12 months, citing overdone Fed rate hike expectations.
Trade data and RBA policy path remain key focus areas for the currency pair’s near-term movements.