With the 2nd quarter GDP advance coming in at 1.5% versus 2.1% expectations from Reuters economists in the rear view mirror, how did the Atlanta Fed model predict the quarter?
On Tuesday, the final estimate came in at 1.5% – equal to the advanced release
Atlanta Fed economist deservedly take a bow. Well done. Now we are entering the 3Q and with the data dump today, the initial estimate is in.
Please NOTE that the initial estimates do not have a lot of data, and therefore, are subject to large fluctuations. It is through the data over the next 3 months that will build the final estimate. In the Atlanta Fed’s own words: The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2026 is 5.0 percent on July 30.