ANZ forecasts Brent above $90/bbl for the rest of 2026 and $80-85 in 2027, with prices potentially above $100 if Persian Gulf recovery slips to end-2027.
ANZ forecasts Brent above $90/bbl for the rest of 2026 and $80-85 in 2027, with prices potentially above $100 if Persian Gulf recovery slips to end-2027. A US-Iran peace deal could push Brent to $83-87.
Summary: ANZ forecasts Brent crude above $90 per barrel for the remainder of 2026 and in the range of $80 to $85 per barrel in 2027, per ANZ research ANZ sees the global oil market running a deficit of 1.6 million barrels per day in 2026, an assumption that factors in rising supply and weakening demand in the fourth quarter of the year, per ANZ ANZ said oil prices could remain above $100 per barrel for most of 2027 if the recovery in the Persian Gulf region is delayed until the end of that year, per ANZ research ANZ said a US-Iran peace deal would be the primary downside scenario for oil prices, potentially pushing Brent to around $83 to $87 per barrel, per ANZ research ANZ has issued one of the more detailed oil price frameworks to emerge from the banking sector since the Hormuz closure began, forecasting Brent crude above $90 per barrel for the remainder of 2026 and a gradual retreat to $80 to $85 in 2027, while flagging a scenario in which prices remain above $100 for most of next year if the Persian Gulf recovery is pushed out to the end of 2027. The bank’s base case for 2026 assumes the global oil market runs a deficit of 1.6 million barrels per day, a figure that already incorporates rising supply and weakening demand in the fourth quarter of the year. That supply increase reflects the expected gradual normalisation of production and export capacity as the conflict stabilises, while the demand softening in Q4 captures the economic drag that elevated energy prices are increasingly inflicting on major consuming economies.
Even with those assumptions in place, the market remains firmly in deficit for the full year, underpinning the above-$90 price call. The 2027 outlook introduces a wider range of outcomes tied directly to the pace of Persian Gulf…