Two of the biggest listings in market history are queued up for the back end of this year, and punters are already pricing the run-in.
Polymarket has opened books on where OpenAI (Unlisted:OPAI) and Anthropic (Unlisted (US):ANTHRO) private valuations land at the end of August, settled on the price reported by Nasdaq Private Market
The contrast between the two is the interesting bit. OpenAI’s market is tightly clustered and reasonably well traded, with 54% on a valuation of $800 billion to $900 billion, and a further 23% on $900 billion to $1 trillion. That is basically a bet on nothing happening, since OpenAI was last marked at $852 billion in March and has sat there ever since.
A related market gives it a 57% chance of touching $900 billion by 31 August. Anthropic’s book, by comparison, is barely trading, with most brackets showing no volume at all and prices that do not add up to a coherent picture. But the adjacent markets are revealing.