JPMorgan highlights a widening gap between surging AI hardware stocks and underperforming major AI capex spenders as a potential market risk.
A divergence between AI hardware stocks and heavy AI capital expenditure spenders is raising concerns among strategists. Chip and memory stocks have driven the AI trade higher in 2026, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 87% and the Roundhill Memory ETF climbing 141% since April.
Major tech spenders like Meta and Microsoft have lagged, with their stocks down 5% and 18% year-to-date, respectively. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF has fallen 7% from its peak, contrasting sharply with hardware gains.
The trend mirrors dynamics from 1999, when communications equipment stocks rallied while heavy spenders declined before the dot-com crash. Analysts warn this gap could trigger a broader pullback if AI monetization doubts persist.