The Federal Reserve is still expected by futures traders and prediction markets to maintain the status quo at its July meeting, leaving interest rates unchanged once again.
However, it’s going to be a close call
The odds are rising Monday that the central bank makes a move to hike. There’s now a 46.5% chance that the Fed hikes interest rates by a quarter point on July 29, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. That’s up from 34% on Sunday.
On prediction market platform Kalshi, traders now see a 36% chance of a hike, up from under 20% on Sunday and under 10% earlier this month. The rise in odds comes after President Donald Trump announced he is reinstating the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz, and imposing a 20% toll on all cargo through the passageway. U.S.