Bank of Thailand likely to hold rates at 1.0% as inflation exceeds target, while USD/THB consolidates near 33.00 amid external risks.
The Thai Baht remains under pressure as rising global commodity prices and foreign portfolio outflows threaten its stability. USD/THB has traded in a 32.90–33.30 range, reflecting concerns over sustained inflation and external economic headwinds.
The Bank of Thailand is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.0% at its 26 August meeting, citing sufficient accommodation despite inflation averaging 2.8% in 2026. Headline inflation is projected to stay above the 1-3% target range through part of H2 before easing in 2027.
Analysts note that further tightening is unlikely due to anchored inflation expectations and soft domestic demand. However, the BoT may maintain its current stance unless growth weakens significantly, keeping rates on hold for the remainder of the year.