Yardeni Research maintains a year-end S&P 500 target of 8,250 despite near-term risks from geopolitics and oil price spikes.
U.S. equities may face increased volatility in the coming weeks as geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic risks weigh on investor sentiment. The S&P 500 has traded near 7,500 since mid-May, reflecting a summer lull rather than a deeper correction, according to the firm’s analysis.
Yardeni Research cited strong corporate earnings and a resilient U.S. economy as supportive factors but warned that valuations already reflect much of this optimism. Rising oil prices, driven by Middle East instability, pose a key risk, with Brent crude climbing from $72 to $95 per barrel since June.
The firm recommends an overweight position in energy stocks to hedge against potential disruptions to global shipping routes, particularly in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.