Quick Read – SOXX surged 96% year-to-date then shed nearly 8% in one week after Broadcom’s softer AI chip forecast and SK Hynix slowed memory expansion. – Unlike SMH’s NVIDIA-heavy concentration, SOXX’s tilt toward Applied Materials and Micron means equipment booking…
ncellations hit three top weights simultaneously. – Michael Burry holds a January 2027 $330 put on SOXX, betting hyperscaler capex cuts below $1 trillion will unwind the fund’s premium valuation. – The iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) has had one of the most violent round trips in its history. SOXX is up 96% year to date and 148% over the past 12 months, yet it just shed almost 8% in a single week, closing near $590
That whipsaw, triggered by Broadcom’s softer AI chip sales forecast and SK Hynix slowing its AI memory expansion, is exactly why the next 12 months for SOXX will hinge on two specific signals, not a generic tech narrative. SOXX holds roughly 30 chipmakers and equipment suppliers, including NVIDIA, Broadcom, AMD, Micron, and Applied Materials, at an expense ratio of 0.34%. After a 42% surge across 17 consecutive sessions in April, the fund is now digesting that move while the VIX has climbed to almost 19 and the 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.4%.
The setup is fragile but not broken. The macro factor that matters most: hyperscaler AI capex guidance The single biggest swing factor for SOXX over the next 12 months is hyperscaler AI capex guidance. The Fed funds rate has sat at 3.75% for roughly six and a half months, and another 25 basis points either way will barely move semiconductor earnings.