In brief – Over $4.8 billion has exited U.S.
Bitcoin ETF products since May, and analysts say a peace deal alone won’t bring institutional capital back. – The 25-delta options skew remains at -4% to -5%, showing traders are still paying a premium for downside protection over upside exposure. – The Fed’s Wednesday meeting and improving institutional demand could help with Bitcoin’s recovery, Decrypt was told
Bitcoin jumped to highs over $65,000 after President Trump announced a completed deal with Iran, but investors remain skeptical about a lasting turnaround for the crypto market. The leading crypto is trading at $65,860, up 2.2% over the past 24 hours and 4% over the past week, according to CoinGecko data. The move follows Trump’s Truth Social posts on Sunday, in which he claimed to have made a “Great Deal” with Iran and authorized the “toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz” and removal of the U.S. naval blockade.
While this round of Iran negotiations feels different, with Pakistan’s prime minister confirming the deal independently before Trump’s posts, investors are unlikely to fully price in a resolution until the signing in Switzerland happens on Friday, Markus Levin, Co-Founder of XYO, told Decrypt. He noted the relief rally in Bitcoin “has already partially arrived,” with the move from the low $60,000s to around $65,800 recovering most of the geopolitical risk premium built up in recent weeks. Bitcoin’s recent levels looked significantly oversold from a sentiment perspective, Georgii Verbitskii, derivatives trader and founder of TYMIO, told Decrypt.