One year ahead inflation expectations rise to 4.0% in March from 2.5% in February 3 years ahead Inflation expectations rise to 3.0% vs 2.5% prior 5 years ahead rise to 2.4% from 2.3% GDP growth seen at -2.1% in year ahead vs -0.9% seen a month earlier Full report here The latest…
One year ahead inflation expectations rise to 4.0% in March from 2.5% in February 3 years ahead Inflation expectations rise to 3.0% vs 2.5% prior 5 years ahead rise to 2.4% from 2.3% GDP growth seen at -2.1% in year ahead vs -0.9% seen a month earlier Full report here The latest ECB consumer expectations survey for March 2026 was marked by surging inflation expectations and worsening outlook for economic growth. Compared with February, median consumer perceptions of inflation over the past year climbed from 3.0% to 3.5%.
More striking, however, was the jump in future expectations; median inflation forecasts for the next 12 months surged to 4.0% from 2.5%, while the three-year outlook rose to 3.0%. Even the long-term five-year forecast saw a slight uptick to 2.4%. This broad increase in inflation expectations was accompanied by heightened uncertainty, though a consistent demographic trend remained: younger respondents and those in higher-income brackets generally maintained lower inflation expectations than older and lower-income cohorts.
The financial pressure on households is further evidenced by the disconnect between income and spending. While expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months remained stagnant at 1.2%, consumers reported a sharp increase in both past and future spending. Perceived nominal spending growth over the previous year rose to 5.1%, and expected spending growth for the year ahead climbed to 4.1%, the highest level recorded since mid-2023.