We are right in the heart of earnings season with 42% of the S&P 500 reporting this week, including most of the Mag7.
We are right in the heart of earnings season with 42% of the S&P 500 reporting this week, including most of the Mag7. The performance of the stock market since the start of April has been astounding.
This chart from JP Morgan highlights a big reason why. Annual S&P 500 EPS estimates almost always drift lower in the first months of the year as the initial optimism of analysts meets the messier reality of guidance, costs, and macro surprises. As JPMorgan put it, earnings revisions have broken from a long-standing seasonal pattern in 2026, with estimates rising rather than falling in the first quarter.
The bank’s framing captures the oddity neatly: “Over the past 15 years, [analysts have] revised their EPS estimates down by an average of 2% between January and April… 2026 is a different story.” Three forces explain the inversion. First — and biggest — is the AI capex super-cycle finally hitting income statements. Technology sector estimates have been revised sharply higher since mid-February, with much of the move tied to Oracle and Micron, the latter benefiting directly from memory content growing inside Nvidia’s chips.