Prior was -0.2 Output +19.0 vs +6.8 prior New orders +9.9 vs +6.1 prior Prices paid 37.0 vs 32.7 prior Employment -0.9 vs -1.0 prior Prices received 14.9 vs 5.9 prior Wages and benefits 14.3 vs 14.6 prior The finished goods prices index jumped nine points to 27.6, its highest…
Prior was -0.2 Output +19.0 vs +6.8 prior New orders +9.9 vs +6.1 prior Prices paid 37.0 vs 32.7 prior Employment -0.9 vs -1.0 prior Prices received 14.9 vs 5.9 prior Wages and benefits 14.3 vs 14.6 prior The finished goods prices index jumped nine points to 27.6, its highest level since July 2022 This is a much better-than-expected print on the activity side. Production jumped more than 12 points to 19.0, capacity utilization did basically the same thing, and shipments ripped from a near-flat 1.8 to 15.0.
Those are big moves and they suggest Texas factories actually had a pretty good April once you get past the noisy headline. The general business activity index slipped a touch further into negative territory at -2.3, but the company outlook flipped positive and uncertainty came down meaningfully — firms are feeling better about themselves even if they’re still cautious on the broader picture. The catch, as always lately, is prices, which continue to rise.
Employment is still a touch negative and capex came off a little, so this isn’t a full-throated boom. But for a regional survey that’s been muddling along near zero for months, the production and shipments numbers are the standout. The trouble is the Fed has to look at finished-goods pricing this hot and decide whether the activity rebound is the story or the inflation pulse is.