Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $90/bbl and WTI to $83/bbl, citing 14.5 mln bpd of Middle East output losses driving a record 11-12 mln bpd global inventory draw in April.
Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $90/bbl and WTI to $83/bbl, citing 14.5 mln bpd of Middle East output losses driving a record 11-12 mln bpd global inventory draw in April. Summary Goldman Sachs raises Q4 2026 Brent crude forecast to $90/bbl, up from prior forecast of $80/bbl Q4 2026 WTI forecast lifted to $83/bbl from $75/bbl Bank estimates 14.5 mln bpd of Middle East crude output losses Global oil inventories drawing at a record pace of 11-12 mln bpd in April Global oil market swings from a 1.8 mln bpd surplus in 2025 to a 9.6 mln bpd deficit in Q2 2026 Global oil demand forecast to fall 1.7 mln bpd in Q2 2026 and 0.1 mln bpd for full year 2026 Prior Q2 2026 Brent forecast was $99/bbl, trimmed to $90/bbl after US-Iran ceasefire; Q2 WTI was $91/bbl, cut to $87/bbl Q3 2026 forecasts unchanged at $82/bbl Brent and $77/bbl WTI Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2026, lifting its Brent crude target to $90 per barrel and WTI to $83 per barrel, as the bank warned that massive Middle East production losses are driving global oil inventories lower at a pace never seen before.
The bank estimates that 14.5 million barrels per day of Middle East crude output has been lost, a figure that is pushing global oil inventories to draw at a record rate of 11 to 12 million barrels per day in April alone. The scale of that drawdown underlines how severe the supply shock has become and how quickly the global oil balance has shifted. Goldman’s updated forecasts mark a sharp upgrade from its previous Q4 base case of $80 per barrel for Brent and $75 per barrel for WTI.
The revision also reflects a broader reassessment of the global supply and demand balance, with the bank now projecting that the oil market will swing from a 1.8 million barrel per day surplus in 2025 to a deficit of 9.6 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026. That is an extraordinary turnaround in a matter of months, driven almost entirely by the…