Goldman Sachs estimates 57% of Gulf crude output was offline in April.
Goldman Sachs estimates 57% of Gulf crude output was offline in April. A Hormuz reopening could restore most supply within months, but tanker shortages and well damage may slow recovery. (Reuters with the info) Summary Goldman Sachs estimates around 14.5 million bpd of Gulf crude output, roughly 57% of pre-war supply, was offline in April Shutdowns are largely precautionary rather than the result of physical damage to oilfields, supporting a faster recovery outlook A safe and sustained Hormuz reopening, absent renewed attacks on oil infrastructure, could allow relatively quick production restoration Saudi Arabia and the UAE have spare capacity to support a faster ramp-up; Iran and Iraq face greater recovery risks Available empty tanker capacity in the Gulf has fallen by around 130 million barrels, or 50%, limiting how quickly exports can resume even after reopening Prolonged well shut-ins risk reducing flow rates, particularly in lower-pressure reservoirs, requiring workovers before full output is restored External agency forecasts average around 70% of lost output recovered within three months and 88% within six months Goldman cautions that a prolonged closure raises the risk of lasting and more difficult-to-reverse supply damage Gulf oil production could largely recover within a few months of the Strait of Hormuz fully reopening, Goldman Sachs said on Thursday, though the bank cautioned that a prolonged closure raises the risk of more lasting supply damage that would complicate any rebound.
According to Reuters, Goldman estimated that around 14.5 million barrels per day of Gulf crude output was offline in April, equivalent to roughly 57% of pre-war supply. Critically, the bank said the shutdowns have been largely precautionary in nature, driven by stock management decisions and the closure of the strait rather than by physical damage to oilfield infrastructure. That distinction matters considerably for the recovery outlook — if fields and facilities are…