Suspicious prediction market activity seen before election poll release: NYT Bets were placed shortly before two recent New York Times/Siena political polls were released to the public, according to a report.
Suspicious prediction market bets were placed shortly before two recent New York Times/Siena political polls were released to the public, according to a report
Vanderbilt University researchers said a Polymarket user bet almost $200,000 on Oct. 31 that Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts would be re-elected. An hour later, a Times/Siena poll was released showing Ricketts in the lead. A Friday New York Times report said while it was not clear if the user had access to inside information, they won more than $77,000.
The user also placed similar large bets on other markets, including Kalshi, the report said. “There’s a series of circumstances here that it’s hard to write it off as a random occurrence,” said Brett Goldstein of the Vanderbilt Institute of National Security. It “requires further investigation.” Polymarket said it had spotted the trades and was investigating. Kalshi declined comment.