If endless Middle East wars were on the ballot, it’s safe to say how it would have gone.
Republicans are openly blaming the war for the midterm rout and the market is taking that at face value
The indication is that Trump will be forced out of Iran, and possibly soon. That will mean a reopened Hormuz and oil will be flowing again. The market is aggressively pricing it in with WTI down $7.69 to $88.39 today in one of the largest plunges of the war.
The close was the lowest since August 31. Given the oil hit $105 late last week, that’s a huge turn. It’s a big drag for inflation too and you can see that in the Treasury market with yields down 3-6 basis points, though there are certainly puts and takes there with Democrats now looking like they’re destined to hold the Senate for the next 4-6 years.