In brief – The Fed announces its decision at 2 p.m.
ET with Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference to follow, and futures and prediction markets put the odds of a hold above 90%. – The target range sits at 3.75%-4.00% after September’s 12-0 hike, with September inflation at 3.7% and oil near $100 a barrel. – Markets give 75% to 80% odds to another quarter-point hike on Dec. 8-9, while bitcoin trades around $80,700
The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision at 2 p.m. ET today, and traders are almost certain it will change nothing. CME FedWatch, a tool that converts bets on interest rate futures into probabilities, puts the odds of a hold above 90%, while prediction markets price it a few points higher.
The decision reaches well beyond Wall Street, because the federal funds rate, which is what banks charge each other for overnight loans, sets the baseline for what consumers pay on credit cards and loans. That rate sits at 3.75% to 4.00% after the Fed raised it in September, its first hike since 2023, in a unanimous 12-0 vote. Consumer prices rose 3.7% in the 12 months through September, the Labor Department reported, and gasoline alone jumped 9.1% in the month.